TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) China Post Securities·2024-10-31 06:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][8] Core Views - Q3 2024 results met expectations with a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [2] - The decline in electrolytic aluminum prices impacted performance, with a quarterly average price of 19,562 yuan/ton, down 4.75% from Q2 [3] - The price of alumina has been rising, with Q4 expected to show improved performance due to high self-supply rates and rising alumina prices [4] - The company announced a mid-term profit distribution plan, distributing 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 923 million yuan, which represents 30% of the net profit for the first nine months of 2024 [5] - The company is set to ship 6 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, which is expected to significantly reduce alumina production costs [6] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to have revenues of 28.434 billion yuan, 29.006 billion yuan, and 29.130 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.87%, 2.01%, and 0.43% [7] - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 4.231 billion yuan, 4.485 billion yuan, and 5.416 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 91.87%, 6.00%, and 20.74% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.91 yuan, 0.96 yuan, and 1.16 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10]