Sinomine(SZ:002738) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 06:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The lithium segment has reached a bottom, and the company is expanding into germanium and copper sectors, which will enrich profit growth points [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.69%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 546 million yuan, down 73.64% year-on-year [3] - The average price of lithium carbonate in Q3 2024 was approximately 80,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 67% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24% [4] - The company completed the acquisition of Kitumba copper mine and Tsumeb smelter, which will provide new profit growth points [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.25% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.39% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 2024 was 73 million yuan, down 87.18% year-on-year and 66.44% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company’s financial expenses in Q3 2024 were 88 million yuan, an increase of 262.4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the impact of the US dollar exchange rate [4] - The cesium and rubidium salt segment achieved operating revenue of 728 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross profit of 526 million yuan, and a gross margin increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 699 million yuan, 1.107 billion yuan, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 1.52, and 2.47 yuan [3] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 31.2, 19.7, and 12.1 times respectively [3] - The company’s operating revenue is expected to decline to 4.925 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 5.887 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.566 billion yuan in 2026 [7]