AVICOPTER(SH:600038) Soochow Securities·2024-10-31 06:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance decline is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, with expectations to meet the initial budget for the year despite a decrease in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][2] - The company is undergoing a product structure adjustment, which has introduced uncertainty in new orders for certain high-revenue products due to model iterations [1] - The company has successfully integrated the helicopter business through the acquisition of Changhe Aircraft Industries Group and Harbin Aircraft Industry Group, expanding its main business and scale [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in performance, supported by the company's leading position in the domestic helicopter manufacturing sector and the growth potential from the low-altitude economy [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 17.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 357 million yuan, down 29.92% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for Q3 2024, reaching 9.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.88%, although net profit decreased by 67.21% to 60 million yuan [1] - The company's total revenue is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with estimates of 30.749 billion yuan in 2024, 36.329 billion yuan in 2025, and 42.549 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31.80%, 18.15%, and 17.12% respectively [9] Cash Flow and Debt Management - As of Q3 2024, cash and cash equivalents decreased by 65.19% year-on-year due to high procurement payments and lower collection post-product delivery, leading to tight cash flow [2] - Contract assets increased significantly by 896.73%, indicating a higher number of products recognized as revenue based on performance progress [2] - The company's liabilities showed mixed changes, with accounts payable increasing by 32.24% and contract liabilities decreasing by 49.40% [2] Acquisition and Business Expansion - The company completed the acquisition of Changhe and Harbin Aircraft, enhancing its helicopter business and broadening its operational scope [3] - The company raised 2.967 billion yuan through a share issuance to fund new helicopter and drone R&D projects, production capacity enhancements, and to supplement working capital [3] Earnings Forecast - The report maintains previous earnings forecasts, projecting net profits of 718 million yuan in 2024, 880 million yuan in 2025, and 1.076 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 48, 39, and 32 [3]