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水羊股份:2024年三季报点评:聚焦发展高端品牌,EDB淡季逆势增长,期待后续业绩表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.045 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, down 47.60% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end brand development, with a significant increase in gross margin driven by brand positioning, despite increased sales expenses impacting profitability [3]. - The acquisition of high-end beauty brands, including RéVive and PierAuge, is expected to enhance the company's brand matrix and drive revenue and profit growth [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 752 million yuan, a decline of 30.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of -11 million yuan, a decrease of 130.41% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 63.09%, with a Q3 gross margin of 67.99%, reflecting an increase of 5.08 and 7.67 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 49.46% for the first three quarters and 57.45% for Q3, up 6.14 and 8.17 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits for 2024 to be 191 million yuan, with projected growth rates of -35.0%, +34.0%, and +22.1% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 26X for 2024, 19X for 2025, and 16X for 2026 [3][6]. Brand Development Strategy - The company has successfully integrated EDB, PA, and RéVive into its high-end brand portfolio, with EDB's global GMV surpassing 1 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 100% [3]. - The company aims to replicate EDB's success with PierAuge, which has a global GMV of approximately 35-40 million USD, and RéVive, with a GMV of about 70-80 million USD [3].