ZMD(688636) 中航证券·2024-10-31 06:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 40 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [2][21]. Core Views - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 209 million CNY (-47.71%) and net profit at -9 million CNY (-114.85%). The decline is attributed to industry conditions and delayed orders [2]. - Despite the downturn, the company has increased its R&D projects significantly, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for future revenue growth. The anticipated recovery in the military industry is expected to drive a turnaround in performance [2][10]. - The company has completed its fundraising projects, including the embedded computer expansion project, which is expected to enhance its production and R&D capabilities, thereby improving its competitive edge [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 49 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 47.40% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 55.47%. The gross margin was 48.89%, showing a slight increase of 2.40 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company's operating expenses have increased significantly, with the total expense ratio at 23.97% (+9.88 percentage points), primarily due to the decline in revenue [2][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on providing customized embedded modules and solutions to key national sectors, with products applied in various critical areas such as aerospace and military [2]. - The company has strengthened its collaboration with key clients and expanded its product offerings, which is expected to enhance project quality and increase project value [8][10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 81 million CNY, 113 million CNY, and 159 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.72 CNY, 1.01 CNY, and 1.42 CNY [10]. - The overall market demand for the company's products remains robust, and the anticipated recovery in the military sector is expected to lead to significant improvements in the company's fundamentals [10].