Xianhe(603733) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-31 06:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high sales volume in Q3 of the year, with self-produced pulp advantages expected to gradually manifest in Q4 [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.262 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 817 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 114% [1] - The report highlights the integration of pulp and paper production, which is expected to enhance profitability as raw material costs stabilize [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 7,738 million yuan - 2023A: 8,553 million yuan - 2024E: 10,050 million yuan (growth rate of 18%) - 2025E: 12,197 million yuan (growth rate of 21%) - 2026E: 14,451 million yuan (growth rate of 18%) [1][2] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 710 million yuan - 2023A: 664 million yuan - 2024E: 1,081 million yuan (growth rate of 63%) - 2025E: 1,342 million yuan (growth rate of 24%) - 2026E: 1,615 million yuan (growth rate of 20%) [1][2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 1.01 yuan - 2023A: 0.94 yuan - 2024E: 1.53 yuan - 2025E: 1.90 yuan - 2026E: 2.29 yuan [1][2] - Market Capitalization: - As of October 30, 2024, the market capitalization is approximately 13.216 billion yuan [1] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross margin for Q3 was 16.55%, an increase of 7.36 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit margin for Q3 was 11.25%, an increase of 5.10 percentage points year-on-year [1] Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the trend of replacing plastic with paper, which is expected to expand demand [1] - The integration of pulp and paper production is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge and profitability in the long term [1]