ZHONGJIN GOLD(600489) China Post Securities·2024-10-31 06:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a net profit of 900 million yuan, a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached 46.045 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.643 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.55% [2][3]. - Production of gold and copper saw slight declines, but there are expectations for improvement in Q4, particularly in gold production, which is anticipated to recover marginally alongside rising gold prices [3][4]. - The company is progressing with the Sa Ling gold mine, which is expected to start production in 2025 and contribute significantly to the gold segment's growth [4]. - The company demonstrated strong shareholder returns with a dividend payout of 1.949 billion yuan in 2023, achieving a payout ratio of 65%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to investors [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 67.230 billion yuan, 69.227 billion yuan, and 71.890 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.74%, 2.97%, and 3.85% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 3.720 billion yuan, 4.162 billion yuan, and 4.752 billion yuan over the same period [6][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.77 yuan in 2024 to 0.98 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 19.27 to 15.09 [9][11].