WLY(SZ:000858) Haitong Securities·2024-10-31 06:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong cash flow performance and continuous improvement in profitability, with a focus on shareholder returns through increased cash dividends [4][5] - The company achieved total revenue of 67.916 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and a net profit of 24.931 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2024 to 2026, with a total cash dividend of at least 20 billion yuan each year [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 17.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 5.874 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin improved by 2.77 percentage points to 76.2% in Q3 2024, attributed to product price increases and optimization of product mix [5] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 increased by 18.7% year-on-year to 28.211 billion yuan, while operating net cash flow rose by 48.0% to 16.366 billion yuan [5] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to have EPS of 8.46, 9.33, and 10.37 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - Based on comparable company valuations, a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20-25x is suggested for 2024, leading to a fair value range of 169.16 to 211.45 yuan [6] - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating based on these projections [6] Key Financial Data and Projections - The company’s projected total revenue for 2024 is 90.312 billion yuan, with a net profit of 32.830 billion yuan [7] - The gross margin is expected to reach 76.8% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 36.4% [9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 23.6% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [9]