Midea Group(SZ:000333) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-31 06:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group [2][13] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with strong domestic sales and rapid overseas growth. The upcoming quarter is expected to benefit from government subsidies, further enhancing the company's market share and growth rate [3][5][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendation - The report raises profit forecasts and maintains a "Buy" rating, projecting net profits for 2024-2026 at 39.44 billion, 43.38 billion, and 46.45 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17%, 10%, and 7% [5][13]. 2. Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 320.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.57%, and a net profit of 31.699 billion yuan, up 14.37%. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 102.228 billion yuan, growing 8.08% year-on-year, with net profit at 10.895 billion yuan, up 14.86% [16]. 3. Revenue: Resilience in Domestic Sales and Accelerated Export Growth - Despite a challenging retail environment in July and August, the company showed stability, benefiting from government subsidies in September. Domestic sales are expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in Q3, outperforming competitors. Overseas demand remains robust, with OBM business growing over 25% year-on-year [17][18]. 4. Profit: Increased Sales and Positive Financial Contributions - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.07%, with a net margin of 10.04%. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 26.42%, reflecting a year-on-year decline due to rising copper prices and exchange rate fluctuations. The company has increased its sales expenses to maintain market share [19][20]. 5. Cash Position and Strong Cash Flow - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 167.9 billion yuan, an increase of 63.2 billion yuan from the previous half-year. The net cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2024 was 60.264 billion yuan, up 34.6% year-on-year [22].