XCMG(000425) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-10-31 06:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 68.726 billion RMB for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.309 billion RMB, an increase of 9.71% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 reached 25.54%, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.53 percentage points, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.65 percentage points, achieving the highest level in the past three years [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end markets, with over 32% of revenue coming from high-end products, which saw a growth rate exceeding 10% [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.094 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.37%, while the net profit was 1.603 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.28% [1]. - The international revenue for H1 2024 was 21.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with international revenue accounting for 44% of total revenue, up by 3.37 percentage points [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was significantly boosted by the overseas market and new product contributions, with the gross margins for aerial work machinery and mining machinery reaching 31.25% and 24.11%, respectively [1]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 94.395 billion RMB, 102.381 billion RMB, and 114.744 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 6.144 billion RMB, 7.784 billion RMB, and 10.331 billion RMB [1][3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for these years are estimated at 14, 11, and 9 times [1]. Asset Quality - The company's operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 2.044 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [1]. - The asset-liability ratio for H1 2024 was 63.84%, a decrease of 1.40 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved asset quality [1]. Market Positioning - The company is emphasizing high-end products, with significant growth in new energy products and large-tonnage machinery, such as a 100% year-on-year increase in new energy loaders and an 80.6% increase in new energy forklifts [1]. - The revenue from high-end products is expected to continue to grow, contributing positively to overall profitability [1].