山西汾酒：Q3业绩符合预期，经营质量扎实

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.36 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.35 billion RMB, up 20.3% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024 was 11.4% and 10.4% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The company has increased its number of distributors by 172 to a total of 4,368, indicating strong market expansion [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2024, high-priced liquor and other liquor segments generated revenues of 22.61 billion RMB and 8.64 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14% and 27% respectively [2]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue from high-priced liquor and other liquor was 6.19 billion RMB and 2.41 billion RMB, showing year-on-year growth of 7% and 26% respectively [2]. - Revenue from domestic and external markets for the first three quarters was 11.90 billion RMB and 19.35 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 21% respectively [2]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 34.1%, with a gross margin down by 0.7 percentage points to 74.3% [2]. - The company’s management expense ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points, while the proportion of business taxes and additional charges decreased by 1.4 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - The report projects revenue growth rates of 16.6%, 11.0%, and 11.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 19.6%, 12.2%, and 12.8% for the same years [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.23 RMB, 11.48 RMB, and 12.95 RMB respectively [3]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 19.3, 17.2, and 15.2 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3].