Gan & Lee(603087) 西南证券·2024-10-31 06:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals (603087) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 2.25 billion yuan (+17.8% YoY) and net profit of 510 million yuan (+90.4% YoY) [2] - Domestic pharmaceutical and device revenue reached 680 million yuan (+22.3% YoY) in Q3, while overseas insulin revenue was 120 million yuan (+72.1% YoY) [2] - Gross margin improved to 75.4% (+0.6pp YoY) in the first three quarters, with Q3 margin reaching 78.1% (+1.5pp YoY) [2] - Key pipeline products GZR18 and GZR4 showed promising clinical trial results, with GZR18 demonstrating superior efficacy to semaglutide in diabetes treatment and achieving 16.5kg weight loss after 35 weeks [3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is projected at 30.95% for 2024E, 39.97% for 2025E, and 20.23% for 2026E [4] - Net profit is expected to grow by 96.25% in 2024E, 65.43% in 2025E, and 28.35% in 2026E [4] - EPS forecasts are 1.11 yuan for 2024E, 1.84 yuan for 2025E, and 2.36 yuan for 2026E [4] - ROE is projected to increase from 5.89% in 2024E to 10.50% in 2026E [4] Operational Highlights - The company successfully implemented price adjustments following centralized procurement renewals, contributing to margin improvement [2] - R&D expenses accounted for 18% of revenue in the first three quarters, while sales expenses were 37% [2] - The company is strategically expanding sales channel coverage in anticipation of centralized procurement implementation across provinces [2] Pipeline Development - GZR18, a single-target GLP-1Ra drug, demonstrated superior efficacy to semaglutide in Phase 2a trials for diabetes treatment [3] - GZR4, a fourth-generation insulin weekly formulation, ranks among the top three in global development progress [3] Valuation Metrics - PE ratio is projected to decrease from 86.45 in 2023A to 20.75 in 2026E [7] - PB ratio is expected to decline from 2.74 in 2023A to 2.18 in 2026E [7] - EV/EBITDA ratio is forecast to improve from 51.51 in 2023A to 12.23 in 2026E [7]