AVIC AVIONICS(SH:600372) Soochow Securities·2024-10-31 06:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 16.567 billion yuan, down 20.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.203 billion yuan, down 27.10% year-on-year. The third quarter also showed a significant decline, with revenue of 5.089 billion yuan, down 24.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 52.10% year-on-year. The decrease in sales gross margin by 6.82 percentage points and net profit margin by 32.19 percentage points indicates challenges in cost control and profitability [1][2][3] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 27.722 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 181.75%. For 2023, the revenue is projected at 29.007 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.63%. The forecast for 2024 is 29.947 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.24%, and for 2025 and 2026, the revenue is expected to reach 32.465 billion yuan and 36.104 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8.41% and 11.21% [1][3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 1.351 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69.16%. The projected net profit for 2023 is 1.886 billion yuan, up 39.62%, and for 2024, it is expected to be 2.049 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.60% growth. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 2.372 billion yuan and 2.672 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.78% and 12.65% respectively [1][3][9] - The latest diluted EPS for 2022 was 0.28 yuan per share, increasing to 0.39 yuan in 2023, with projections of 0.42 yuan for 2024, 0.49 yuan for 2025, and 0.55 yuan for 2026 [1][3][9] Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for aviation equipment, with a comprehensive product line in aviation electronics and electromechanical systems. The focus on flight control systems, radar systems, and optoelectronic detection systems positions the company favorably in the market. The integration of 中航机电 has enhanced supply chain management capabilities, solidifying its market position [3][9]