Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (SH:600809) Orient Securities·2024-10-31 06:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 258.75 CNY, reflecting a 25% valuation premium based on strong earnings certainty [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.36 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.35 billion CNY, up 20.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.61 billion CNY, which is an 11.4% increase, and a net profit of 2.94 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.4% growth [1]. - The growth in revenue is supported by high growth rates in other alcoholic beverages, with Q3 showing balanced growth both domestically and externally [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin was 76.0%, with a net profit margin of 36.2% [3]. - The company has maintained a stable profitability structure, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 74.3% in Q3 2024 [3]. - The company continues to push for channel reforms and has increased its distributor count to 4,368 by the end of Q3 2024, indicating a robust distribution network [2][3]. Earnings Forecast and Adjustments - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 10.35 CNY, 12.18 CNY, and 14.23 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [4][8]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 37.24 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.6% [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is estimated at 25 times, reflecting its strong earnings certainty [4][5].