华夏航空：经营恢复持续向好，Q3业绩略超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaxia Airlines is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous operational recovery, with Q3 performance slightly exceeding expectations. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 307 million yuan, turning from loss to profit compared to the same period last year [2][4]. - The company is the only large-scale independent regional airline in China, benefiting from the revised subsidy management measures for regional airlines and improved operational conditions. The future development space is broad, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 406 million, 952 million, and 1.124 billion yuan, respectively [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, a 412% increase year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 278 million yuan, up 426% from the previous year [2][4]. - The company's operating revenue for 2023 is projected to be 5.151 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 94.9% year-on-year. For 2024, the revenue is expected to reach 7.065 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 37.2% [1][6]. Capacity and Operations - The company has increased its fleet by 3 aircraft in the first three quarters of 2024, bringing the total fleet size to 73 aircraft, with 46 regional aircraft (63%) and 27 trunk aircraft (37%) [2]. - The available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 35.81% and 43.34% year-on-year, respectively, recovering to 141% and 140% of the levels seen in 2019 [3]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is projected to improve significantly, with estimates of -31% for 2023, 12% for 2024, and reaching 21% by 2025 [1][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to recover from -0.75 yuan in 2023 to 0.32 yuan in 2024, and further to 0.74 yuan in 2025 [1][6]. Market Position - The company is actively focusing on private travel changes and has launched new regional routes, enhancing its product offerings with features like "small town tours" and "short trips" [2][3].