BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) EBSCN·2024-10-31 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 570 million yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved to 70.11% for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to slight price increases and reduced commercial discounts [2]. - The company is expected to launch a new whiskey product in Q4 2024, which could provide new growth opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 760 million yuan, a decline of 6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 24.09% for the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to increased advertising efforts [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 22.67%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product Development - The company plans to release its whiskey product in Q4 2024 and has established a whiskey brand cultural experience center expected to open by the end of 2024 [3]. - The introduction of new products such as the gin brand "Jiao Yu" and vodka brand "Ling Liao" is aimed at enhancing the company's portfolio in high-quality white spirits [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 797 million, 932 million, and 1.069 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% reduction for 2024 and 2025, and a 3% reduction for 2026 [3]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.76, 0.89, and 1.02 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29x, 25x, and 21x [3].