浙江美大：经营承压，静待拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a 6-month outlook [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue pressure due to a sluggish real estate market, with a significant year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 [1] - The company is actively adjusting its business strategy to cope with market changes, including launching new products and optimizing sales channels, which may lead to a recovery in Q4 2024 [1] - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the integrated stove category, benefiting from its extensive online and offline marketing network [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 654 million yuan, down 48.16% year-on-year, and a net profit of 107 million yuan, down 70.67% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 195 million yuan, a decrease of 60.18% year-on-year, with a net profit of 904 thousand yuan, down 93.78% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 was 40.8%, a decline of 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting ongoing pressure from weak demand [2] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 4.6%, down 25.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1.02 billion yuan, 1.07 billion yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 127.83 million yuan, 156.79 million yuan, and 190.93 million yuan [4][7] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 36.64x, 29.87x, and 24.53x, respectively [4][9] Market Position - The company is recognized as a pioneer and leading brand in the integrated stove market, maintaining a competitive edge in sales scale, brand awareness, and market share [2] - The company is expected to benefit from supportive policies in the real estate sector and the appliance replacement market, which may aid in revenue and profit recovery [2]