ASMPT：2024年三季度业绩点评：净利润因汇兑损失不及预期，4Q24后TCB设备有望加速出货

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for ASMPT (0522 HK) [4] Core Views - Q3 2024 revenue exceeded expectations at $429 million (HK$3 34 billion), up 0 1% QoQ but down 3 7% YoY, beating market expectations by 4% [1] - Semiconductor Solutions revenue grew 14% YoY and 8% QoQ to $229 million, driven by strong demand for advanced packaging [1] - SMT revenue declined 18$199 million due to slow recovery in the traditional semiconductor cycle [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin improved by 0 94 ppts to 41%, with Semiconductor Solutions margin up 4 ppts to 48 6%, offsetting a 3 4 ppt decline in SMT margin [1] - Net profit was HK$23 8 million, down 83$108 million in FX losses, but would have been flat QoQ excluding FX impact [1] - New orders in Q3 2024 totaled $406 million, up 1 5$13 248 million, with net profit of HK$492 million [2] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at HK$15 766 million, with net profit of HK$1 073 million [2] - 2026E revenue is expected to reach HK$17 345 million, with net profit of HK$1 632 million [2] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at HK$1 19, HK$2 59, and HK$3 94, respectively [2] Business Segments - Semiconductor Solutions revenue is expected to grow from HK$6 766 million in 2024E to HK$10 478 million in 2026E [6] - SMT revenue is projected to remain relatively flat, from HK$6 482 million in 2024E to HK$6 868 million in 2026E [6] - Gross margin for Semiconductor Solutions is expected to remain strong, while SMT margin continues to face pressure [6] Key Developments - TCB equipment secured a bulk order from a leading HBM manufacturer in October 2024, with deliveries expected in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - The company continues to win orders from leading IDM and foundry customers for C2W and C2S applications [1] - AI-related advanced packaging demand is driving growth in TCB equipment orders and improving long-term gross margin prospects [1] Market Data - Current share price: HK$87 0 [4] - Market capitalization: HK$36 062 billion [4] - 52-week range: HK$65 05 - HK$119 [4] - 3-month turnover rate: 79 6% [4]