ZJJH(600160) 湘财证券·2024-10-31 07:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 17.91 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.26 billion yuan, up 68.4% year-on-year. In the third quarter, revenue was 5.83 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year and 11.9% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 420 million yuan, up 64.8% year-on-year but down 19.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s refrigerant sales volume decreased quarter-on-quarter due to the traditional off-season, but prices increased by approximately 13.9% due to production quota constraints. The company is expected to benefit from a high profitability cycle in refrigerants as the traditional consumption off-season ends and a new cooling year begins [2][3] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 25.16 billion yuan, 29.08 billion yuan, and 31.62 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 15.6%, and 8.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.78 billion yuan, 2.45 billion yuan, and 3.17 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.5%, 37.8%, and 29.1% [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 5.9% to 14.5% over the same period [3] Market Position - The company is a leading player in the fluorochemical industry with a complete fluorochemical industrial chain. It is expected to benefit from a tight supply situation in the refrigerant market due to quota policies [2][3]