WLY(SZ:000858) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-31 07:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 67.92 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.93 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 17.27 billion yuan, growing by 1.4%, while net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, increasing by 1.3% [1][2] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% for the years 2024-2026, with a minimum total dividend of 20 billion yuan (before tax) [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 83.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6%. For 2024, the expected revenue is 89.96 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% growth [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 30.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.2%. The forecast for 2024 is 33.16 billion yuan, indicating a 9.8% increase [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 7.78 yuan, with estimates of 8.54 yuan for 2024, 9.15 yuan for 2025, and 9.92 yuan for 2026 [6] Cash Flow and Profitability - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow, with operating cash flow net amounting to 16.37 billion yuan in Q3, up 48.0% year-on-year. The cash collection rate exceeded 90% [2][5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 improved by 2.8 percentage points to 76.2%, attributed to price increases and a higher proportion of premium products [2][5] Management and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-quality development, with a pragmatic approach to managing external demand pressures. The growth target for 2025 has been adjusted to a single-digit increase, slightly above GDP growth [2][5] - The management has shown improvements in operational strategies, with a focus on maintaining stable pricing for key products while promoting growth in secondary products [2][5]