东鹏饮料：深度全国化，补水啦表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.558 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.707 billion yuan, up 63.53% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a main business revenue of 4.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.28%, driven by rapid growth in the national market [2] - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Guangdong while accelerating nationwide expansion, with significant growth in various regions [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 16.281 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44.6% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.336 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [4] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 45.5% by 2024 [4] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Guangdong region increased by 23.79% to 1.312 billion yuan, while the Guangxi region saw a slower growth of 46.18% to 373 million yuan [2] - The Central China region experienced a revenue growth of 57.90% to 654 million yuan, and the North China region grew by 59.62% to 516 million yuan [2] Product Performance - The revenue from Dongpeng Special Drink increased by 27.7% to 3.652 billion yuan, while Dongpeng Water saw a remarkable growth of 299.6% to 735 million yuan [2] - Other beverage products experienced a revenue increase of 107% to 281 million yuan [2] Cost and Expenses - Operating costs increased by 36.48% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.8%, up 4.3 percentage points [3] - Selling expenses rose by 77.12% to 837 million yuan, with a selling expense ratio of 17.9% [3] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 977 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.42%, with a net profit margin of 20.8% [3] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.41 yuan, 8.16 yuan, and 9.42 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33, 26, and 23 [3]