五粮液：2024年三季报点评：稳健经营，分红规划塑信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 148.80 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady operations and a robust dividend plan, which enhances investor confidence. The commitment to a minimum annual cash dividend of 70% of net profit, with a floor of 20 billion CNY, reflects strong management confidence and aims to boost market sentiment [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 32.7 billion CNY, 34.4 billion CNY, and 36.1 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.3%, 5.2%, and 4.9% respectively [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported cumulative revenue of 67.916 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.931 billion CNY, up 9.19% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 17.268 billion CNY, with a net profit of 5.874 billion CNY, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to previous quarters due to market pressures [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 77.06%, with a slight decrease to 76.17% in Q3. The net profit margin for the same periods was 36.71% and 34.02% respectively, indicating a stable profitability despite increased marketing expenses [1][5]. - The company’s sales revenue for Q3 was 28.211 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 18.07%, which outpaced revenue growth, suggesting improved cash flow management [1]. Future Projections - The company is projected to maintain a strong financial outlook with expected revenues of 89.675 billion CNY, 94.538 billion CNY, and 99.063 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 7.69%, 5.42%, and 4.79% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.43 CNY in 2024 to 9.30 CNY in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 18 to 16 over the same period [6].