Eastern Air Logistics (SH:601156) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-31 07:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 profit of 790 million, a year-on-year increase of 101%, signaling a recovery as the industry enters a peak season with anticipated price elasticity [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 17.67 billion, up 24.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.07 billion, also up 24.1% [1]. - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue from the comprehensive logistics solutions segment, which grew by 48.2% in Q3 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 Financials: - Revenue: 6.39 billion, up 31.5% year-on-year, and net profit: 790 million, up 100.7% year-on-year [1]. - Cost of goods sold for Q3 was 5.11 billion, reflecting a 24.1% increase year-on-year, with an overall gross margin of 20.0%, up 4.8 percentage points [1]. - Segment Performance: - Air Express Business: Q3 revenue of 2.27 billion, up 18.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.3% [1]. - Ground Comprehensive Services: Q3 revenue of 640 million, up 10.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 38.8% [1]. - Comprehensive Logistics Solutions: Q3 revenue of 3.47 billion, up 48.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.8% [1]. - Cost and Expense Analysis: - The report notes a decrease in financial expenses by 160 million, contributing to a lower expense ratio [1]. - The overall expense ratio (excluding R&D) for Q3 was 2.0%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 3.02 billion, 3.46 billion, and 3.66 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.90, 2.18, and 2.30 [1][2]. - The target price is set at 21.8 yuan, representing a 29% upside from the current price of 16.88 yuan, based on a 10x PE valuation for 2025 [1][3].