XIANGPIAOPIAO(SH:603711) Huafu Securities·2024-10-31 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [6][18]. Core Insights - The company, Xiangpiaopiao (603711.SH), reported a revenue of 1.938 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 408.98% to 18 million yuan [3][5]. - The beverage segment is experiencing a shift, with the ready-to-drink products showing growth, while the instant drink segment is under pressure [4][5]. - The gross margin improved to 40.94% in Q3 2024, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an orderly increase in overall profitability [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 759 million yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 47 million yuan, a decrease of 0.62% [3]. - The instant drink segment generated 801 million yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a growth of 7.89% year-on-year, while the instant drink segment saw a decline of 8.27% [4]. - The company’s revenue from various regions showed mixed results, with East China growing by 4.42% while e-commerce and direct sales faced declines [4]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 281 million, 364 million, and 449 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 15, and 12 [5][6]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit margins, with the net profit margin reaching 6.22%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Valuation and Forecast - The projected revenue for 2024 is 3.692 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.8%, and net profit is expected to remain stable at 281 million yuan [11][14]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the instant drink segment and continued growth in the ready-to-drink category, supporting the investment thesis [5][6].