Long Ping High-Tech(SZ:000998) HTSC·2024-10-31 07:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longping High-Tech [1][4][6] Core Views - Longping High-Tech reported a Q3 revenue of 299 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 60.3%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 587 million RMB, indicating a worsening loss compared to the previous year [1][2] - The core business for the 2023/24 agricultural year shows growth in both volume and price, with potential long-term benefits from the commercialization of genetically modified crops [1][3] - The company has adjusted its 2024 profit forecast down to 200 million RMB from a previous estimate of 590 million RMB due to ongoing low corn prices [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 60.3% year-on-year, primarily due to intense competition and falling prices in the domestic and international corn industry [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was down by 1.9%, with significant asset impairment and credit loss provisions totaling 139 million RMB [2] - As of Q3 2024, the company's contract liabilities stood at 3.87 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [2] Core Business Growth - In the 2023/24 operating year, the company achieved a total seed sales volume of 293 million kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 6.96%, and total revenue of 8.736 billion RMB, up 9.55% year-on-year [3] - The sales volume of rice seeds reached 53.88 million kilograms, a 16% increase, generating sales revenue of 1.94 billion RMB, a 22% increase [3] - Corn seed sales also grew, with a volume of 180 million kilograms, up 9.8%, and revenue of 5.49 billion RMB, up 8.8% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The 2024 profit forecast has been revised down to 200 million RMB, while the profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged [4][9] - The target price for the stock is set at 14.85 RMB, based on a 21.84x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the ongoing recovery in the corn seed industry [4][9]