证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 30 年 月 日 农林牧渔 生猪全面步入亏损，大宗原料成本稳步抬升 生猪养殖：月底全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价跌至 10 元/kg 下方，亏损程度加 深。市场股票经历反弹后大幅回调，参与度依旧较低，我们预计未来较长 时间成本偏高的参与者面临减量压力，母猪产能数据变化仍将继续催化， 建议投资者关注亏损阶段的配置机会。当前估值仍位于相对低位，关注低 成本的猪企的配置机会，关注德康农牧、温氏股份、牧原股份、立华股份、 巨星农牧、天康生物、正邦科技等。 大宗农产品：原油持续高位运行，预计带动生产成本上涨同时拉动需求扩 张，影响程度排序为植物油类、橡胶为先，其次为白糖、玉米，粮食类小 麦、稻谷为后。当前主要大宗农产品虽经历了部分上涨，定价仍未充分， 基本面反应在后但有望跟随，关注植物油类、橡胶、白糖、玉米等相关对 应标的。 菌菇：本月金针菇价格保持超预期景气，板块标的业绩发布兑现高增，主 营产品价格景气持续，冬虫夏草作为重点新产品放量期临近，年度配置价 值高，建议关注板块重点标的众兴菌业、雪榕生物、华绿生物等。 养殖配套：农产品上下游价格波动加剧，畜禽价格尚 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization, highlighting government support and the need for technological self-reliance in seed production [1][11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs has dropped to 9.96 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.90% decrease week-on-week, primarily due to oversupply and seasonal demand decline [2][12] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is likely to accelerate capacity reduction due to widespread losses, with specific recommendations for companies in the breeding and feed sectors [5][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on seed industry revitalization, aiming for technological independence and improved seed quality [1][11] - Key companies recommended for investment include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, as well as leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is currently 9.96 CNY/kg, with a significant decline in profits for self-bred and purchased piglets, leading to a forecasted acceleration in capacity reduction [2][5][12] - Companies recommended for investment in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, New Hope Liuhe, and WH Group, among others [5][12] Market Data - The report tracks key agricultural product prices, noting that corn is priced at 2453.27 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [22][23] - The average price of wheat is reported at 2595.63 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34% [25][26] - The average price of cotton in Xinjiang is 16670 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.85% [41][42]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization, highlighting the need for technological independence and self-sufficiency in seed sources. The government is committed to enhancing the strength of seed enterprises and optimizing the market environment for seed resources [1][12]. - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs has dropped to 9.96 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.90% decrease week-on-week. This decline is attributed to oversupply and seasonal demand fluctuations, leading to increased pressure on large-scale farms to reduce inventory [2][13]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is likely to accelerate capacity reduction due to widespread losses, with specific recommendations for companies in the breeding and feed sectors that are expected to benefit from cost improvements and higher future output elasticity [5][13]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on seed industry revitalization, emphasizing the need for organized and systematic research and breeding efforts. The goal is to enhance the quality of seed resources and promote the commercialization of breeding technologies [1][12]. - Key companies recommended for investment in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, as well as leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs has decreased to 9.96 CNY/kg, with a significant drop in profits for self-bred and purchased piglets, indicating a challenging market environment [2][5][13]. - The report highlights the need for capacity control measures among pig farming enterprises to better align supply and demand, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Muyuan Foods, New Hope Liuhe, and WH Group [5][13]. Key Agricultural Products - Corn: The average price is 2453.27 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [26]. - Wheat: The average price is 2595.63 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34% [29]. - Soybeans: The average price is 4277.37 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [42].

Market Strategy - The report suggests that the market is currently in a "bottomed" state despite fluctuations, indicating a potential for recovery in the medium term. Investors are encouraged to focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks during this period [2][6]. - The external shocks from geopolitical conflicts have largely been priced in by the market, leading to a decrease in risk perception within the domestic market, which supports a stable A-share market [2][6]. Sector Strategy - The report highlights that rising energy prices are positively impacting the agricultural sector, suggesting a strong investment opportunity due to the upward pressure on agricultural product prices caused by geopolitical disturbances [4][6]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from increased production costs, which may lead to a consolidation of inefficient players and improve overall industry dynamics [4][6]. Thematic Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of energy security, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where new national standards are being developed to enhance safety and reliability. This shift is expected to benefit key manufacturers and core material suppliers in the solar industry [5][6]. - The report identifies specific investment opportunities in the agricultural sector, recommending stocks such as Hainan Rubber (601118), Longping High-Tech (000998), Muyuan Foods (002714), and Haida Group (002311) [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [70]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.50% [13]. - The report highlights ongoing pressures in the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining due to supply-side pressures and a potential increase in slaughter volumes [3][21]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][35]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in milk prices [5][39][42]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement amid external uncertainties [6][45][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2928.56 points, down 4.50% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 9.90 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.79%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.62 kg, indicating a slight increase [21][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and ongoing losses in the sector [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 1.66%. The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has improved slightly [34][35]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. The report expects beef prices to rise as the consumption season approaches [5][40][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2332.86 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.18% week-on-week. The report notes potential improvements in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][45][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 0.30%. Aquaculture prices for various species have remained stable [56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture sector, particularly highlighting the pig farming segment and other related industries [3][55]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector is expected to benefit from rising energy prices, with agricultural products following suit. The report emphasizes the high layout value of agriculture due to geopolitical disturbances and rising production costs, which may lead to a price increase in agricultural products [9][12]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments, including pig farming, downstream animal health, planting chains, and the pet food industry, suggesting specific companies for investment [3][55]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report is optimistic about the pig farming sector, anticipating a recovery in pig prices in 2026, with companies like Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Shennong Group (605296) recommended for investment [3][55]. - In the post-cycle sector, structural growth trends are expected to continue, with companies like Haida Group (002311) and Ruipu Biological (300119) highlighted [3][55]. - The planting chain is expected to see investment opportunities due to rising commodity prices, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952), Beidahuang (600598), Hainan Rubber (601118), Longping High-Tech (000998), and COFCO Sugar (600737) recommended [3][55]. - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with companies like Guibao Pet (301498), Zhongchong Co. (002891), and Petty Co. (300673) noted for their potential [3][55]. Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the current state of the pig farming industry, noting that prices have reached a historical low, with the average price at 10.08 CNY/kg as of March 13, 2026. The report suggests that the market sentiment is shifting towards recovery [31][32]. - For the white feather broiler chicken segment, prices are stable, with the average price at 7.21 CNY/kg and chick prices showing a slight increase [33][34]. - The report highlights the upward trend in grain prices, with corn prices at 2446.86 CNY/ton and wheat at 2577.61 CNY/ton, indicating a strong market for feed ingredients [41][42]. Market Performance - The agriculture sector outperformed the broader market, with the agricultural and forestry sector index rising by 1.01% compared to a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [57][58]. - Specific companies within the agriculture sector showed significant gains, with Yasheng Group increasing by 13.41% and COFCO Technology by 8.45% [59][60].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of mid-cap blue-chip stocks amid geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the importance of supply chain resilience and energy security [2][4][6] - It suggests that the market will continue to exhibit a slightly strong oscillating pattern, with a comparative advantage in China's asset risk evaluation [3][4] - The report identifies agricultural companies as having significant growth potential due to rising prices driven by geopolitical disturbances and opportunities for overseas expansion [5][6] Market Strategy - The geopolitical situation, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, is impacting global asset prices and risk preferences, leading to a rise in overall risk evaluation [3][4] - The report anticipates that the market will maintain a slightly strong oscillating pattern, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks gaining traction as a safer investment option [3][4] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI 500 ETF and cash flow-related ETFs, which are expected to perform well in this environment [3] Style Strategy - The report notes a shift in investment focus from cyclical price increases to broader themes of "safety" and "self-sufficiency" within mid-cap blue-chip stocks [4] - It highlights a rotation within the mid-cap blue-chip style, where agricultural sectors are becoming more attractive due to their lower valuations compared to previously high-performing cyclical sectors [4][6] Industry Strategy - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from rising commodity prices, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices and favorable conditions for planting and seed industries [5] - Domestic agricultural companies are poised to expand their growth potential through international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where demand for improved living standards is increasing [5][6] - Key agricultural stocks identified for investment include Longping High-Tech (000998), Muyuan Foods (002714), and Haida Group (002311) [5][6] Theme Strategy - The report forecasts robust growth in the renewable energy sector, with an expected average annual installed capacity of 200 GW from 2026 to 2035, and a significant share of new power installations coming from wind and solar energy [6] - It emphasizes that the transition from a growth to a cyclical investment logic in renewable energy is underway, while still highlighting growth opportunities in niche areas such as offshore wind and new technologies [6] - Relevant stocks in the renewable energy sector include Dongfang Cable (603606) and Jiazhe New Energy (601619) [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural sector as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [5]. Core Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $92.7 per barrel, a 28% increase from the previous week, marking the largest weekly gain since 1991. WTI crude rose to $90.0 per barrel, a 36% increase, the largest since its listing in 1983 [5]. - Historically, core agricultural product prices such as corn and soybeans have shown a strong correlation with oil prices. Rising oil prices are expected to boost agricultural prices through increased biofuel usage and cost transmission [5]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Planting industry: Benefiting directly from the anticipated rise in agricultural prices, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang being key players [5]. 2. Seed industry: Seed prices typically lag behind agricultural prices, with potential for recovery in the medium term, featuring companies like Longping High-Tech and Denghai Seeds [5]. 3. Pig farming: 2026 is projected to be a year of recovery for farming profits, with a focus on the pace and extent of capacity reduction, involving companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5]. Summary by Sections Oil and Agricultural Price Trends - The report details the historical price movements of oil and agricultural products, indicating that oil price fluctuations significantly impact agricultural prices [8]. - Recent data shows that agricultural prices in China have declined over the past three years, with maximum declines of 25% to 35% for wheat, corn, and soybeans. However, a recovery trend has been observed since early 2025 [15]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific companies within the agricultural sector that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated price increases, including: - Planting: Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, Hainan Rubber [18]. - Seeds: Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, Kangnong Seeds [20]. - Pig farming: Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, Wens Foodstuffs [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing significant losses, with production capacity reduction accelerating. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is driving up oil prices, which may lead to an increase in agricultural product prices [1][2]. - The report suggests that the period from March to May is traditionally a low demand season for pork, and the supply side is expected to remain ample, indicating that Q2 2026 may represent the peak supply period of the current pig cycle [2][4]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the planting sector due to rising oil prices and the potential for agricultural product prices to rebound after a three-year decline [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 2.1%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.1%. The top five gainers included Yasheng Group (39.0%), COFCO Technology (8.4%), Dunhuang Seed Industry (8.2%), Agricultural Development Seed Industry (8.1%), and Shennong Technology (7.4%) [3][10]. - The top five decliners were Biotech Co. (-6.7%), Yong'an Forestry (-6.7%), Dahu Co. (-6.3%), Jinxin Agriculture (-6.0%), and Huisheng Biotech (-5.2%) [3][10]. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs as of March 8 was 10.23 CNY/kg, down 0.44 CNY/kg week-on-week, marking a 4.1% decline and the lowest price since October 2021 [2][11]. - Losses for self-breeding sows with 5,000-10,000 heads have increased to 206.3 CNY/head, reflecting a week-on-week increase of approximately 46.7 CNY/head [2][11]. - The report anticipates that the pig price will continue to decline, with a potential second bottoming out phase expected between March and May, leading to a re-initiation of production capacity reduction [2][4]. Planting Sector - The report notes that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, which may positively influence agricultural product prices. As of March 6, WTI crude oil prices reached 91 USD/barrel, a 36% increase from before the blockade [2][4]. - The report suggests that major agricultural product prices have been at historical lows after a three-year decline, indicating potential investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [2][4]. Poultry and Livestock - The report indicates that the prices of major poultry products have shown slight fluctuations, with the average sales price of white feather chicken at 3.52 CNY/kg, down 3.6% week-on-week [2][14]. - The beef market remains strong, with the average price of fattened bulls at 25.74 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [2][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Shennong Group, as well as in the planting sector, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the bottom price for live pigs is being confirmed, and a price increase is expected as pessimistic expectations are likely to be gradually reversed [3][12] - The report emphasizes that the current market expectations for pig prices are overly pessimistic, primarily due to the neglect of the pressure from previous inventory destocking [12][21] - It is noted that the supply peak for live pigs has passed, and prices are expected to gradually rise [14][16] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, anticipating improved performance in 2026 due to cost advantages for leading companies. Suggested stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the structural growth trend continues, with profits in the breeding industry chain expected to gradually transmit downstream, benefiting the animal health sector. Recommended stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Ruipu Biological (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, under the backdrop of geopolitical disturbances, the price increase of bulk commodities has been transmitted to agriculture. The report identifies a positive outlook for planting and seed industry fundamentals, highlighting investment opportunities in large-scale planting. Suggested stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Buy), Longping High-Tech (000998, Buy), and COFCO Sugar (600737, Buy) [3] - The pet sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies. Suggested stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report indicates that the average price of live pigs is currently around 10.32 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed. The market sentiment is dominated by bearish expectations, and the price is in a testing phase for the bottom [21] - The report notes that the number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million heads by the end of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.92%, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure in the second half of 2026 [14][15] - The report highlights that the core of current pig price fluctuations is inventory rather than production capacity, with the inventory cycle nearing its bottom, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices [16][17] Commodity Prices - The report states that corn, soybean meal, and wheat prices have risen, with corn at 2417.84 yuan/ton, wheat at 2542 yuan/ton, and soybean meal at 3174.57 yuan/ton as of March 6 [34] - The report mentions that the price of natural rubber has shown a downward trend, with futures prices at 16835 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.87% decrease [41]