Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][10]. Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes food security and agricultural modernization, reiterating the importance of "new agricultural productivity" and the continuous focus on seed industry revitalization, particularly in biological breeding [4]. - In livestock, there is a shift towards "strengthening" comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, with a focus on stabilizing the beef and dairy industries, and promoting dairy product consumption [4]. - The document highlights the importance of grain security, aiming to stabilize grain production at around 14 trillion jin, and introduces measures to enhance grain circulation efficiency [4]. - The report outlines the implementation of agricultural technology, including the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, and identifies key application scenarios such as drones, IoT, and robotics [4]. - The report suggests three main investment focuses: the recovery of the beef and dairy industries, the expected rebound in the pig cycle, and the continued advancement of the seed industry and biological breeding [4]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The report indicates a comprehensive approach to regulating pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of measures taken to support the beef and dairy industries [4]. - It also mentions the introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption for the first time [4]. Crop Production - The focus remains on food security, with a commitment to stabilize grain production and enhance the efficiency of grain circulation [4]. - The report introduces a new round of initiatives aimed at increasing grain production capacity, particularly for oilseed crops like soybeans [4]. Seed Industry - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of seed industry revitalization actions and the acceleration of biological breeding industrialization [4]. - It notes the continuous mention of biological breeding in the Central Document over the past six years, highlighting its growing importance [4]. Agricultural Technology - The report outlines the path for implementing new agricultural productivity, emphasizing the need for technology integration, particularly in AI applications [4]. Agricultural Trade - The report advocates for the coordination of agricultural trade and production, promoting diversification of agricultural imports and supporting the export of competitive agricultural products [4].

农林牧渔行业：提升农业综合生产 力，强化生猪产能综合调控 ——2026 年中央一号文件点评 风险提示：极端天气影响，动物疫病影响，转基因推广进度不及预期，生猪产 能去化不及预期等。 2026 年 2 月 5 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 事件：2026 年中央一号文件 2 月 3 日发布，这也是"十五五"首个中央一号 文件。《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的 意见》提出锚定农业农村现代化，以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手，以学习运用 "千万工程"经验为引领，以改革创新为根本动力，提高强农惠农富农政策效 能，守牢国家粮食安全底线，持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，提升乡村产业发展 水平、乡村建设水平、乡村治理水平，努力把农业建成现代化大产业、使农村 基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好，为推进中国式现代化提供 基础支撑。 提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益。一号文强调要坚持产量产能、生产生态、 增产增收一起抓。从前几年侧重保障供给的数量和安全，转向产量、产能、效 益协同发展，强调综合能力的全面提升。除了生产端之外，政策也在持续关注 全产业链的提质增效。一号文表示要"推动粮食品种培优和品 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 中央一号文件强调加快推进智慧农业 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 (6) 3 12 20 29 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 农林牧渔 增持 (维持) | 姚雪梅* | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570525100001 | yaoxuemei@htsc.com | +(86) 21 2897 2228 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 王煜坤* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125120001 wangyukun@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 行业走势图 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 温氏股份 ...

就在周二（2月3日），大家期盼已久的2026年中央一号文件正式落地了。 作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，这份文件不仅是农民伯伯的"锦囊"，也是我们投资者的"藏宝图"。 咱们这就剥开壳，看看这颗"政策花生"里到底藏了哪些干货，顺便聊聊农牧渔ETF（159275）的配置价 值。 政策要点速览：从"保产量"到"提质量" 今年的文件不仅是年度工作部署，更是"十五五"农业农村现代化的开局蓝图，此次文件核心变化与要点 如下： "一个底线"与"一个行动"：文件明确将今年粮食产量稳定在1.4万亿斤左右，并加力实施新一轮千亿斤 粮食产能提升行动 。这为种植产业链，比如种子、化肥、农机、土地提供了持续的刚性需求。 "一个新提法"：农业新质生产力"首次站到C位。这意味着农业发展的底层逻辑从资源投入转向技术驱 动。 "两项关键调控"：生猪方面，政策表述从"监测调控"升级为"强化生猪产能综合调控"，旨在促进供求平 衡；奶业则是提出"巩固肉牛、奶牛产业纾困成果"并"多措并举促进乳制品消费"，直面上游牧场连续亏 损的困境。 "一套组合拳"：文件提出健全财政金融协同支农机制，用足用好专项债、超长期特别国债，引导资金加 大投入。这直接降低了涉农 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly benefiting Hong Kong dairy farming stocks [1]. - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments: Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Lihua Co., among others [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, driven by a recovery in the livestock cycle and improved cash flow for leading companies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with recommendations for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming as key beneficiaries [1][14]. - The report notes that domestic beef production capacity is decreasing, which may lead to price increases through 2028 [14]. - The improvement in raw milk prices is anticipated to benefit dairy farming companies, with a projected profit increase for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [17]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, with leading companies like Huazhong, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods recommended for investment [1][14]. - The report indicates that the industry is moving towards a more stable price center, supported by a reduction in production capacity and improved cash flow for leading firms [15][20]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with recommendations for Lihua Co. and Shengnong Development [1][18]. - The report notes that the supply of white feather chickens is increasing, but demand is expected to improve, leading to potential price recovery [22][24]. Pet Sector - The pet food market is identified as a growing segment, with a focus on domestic brands like Guibao Pet [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the pet sector, driven by rising consumer sentiment and market expansion [16]. Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies like Haida Group recommended [1][18]. - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong support level for future price recovery [18].

中联重科正以高端智能农机装备和智慧农业解决方案赋能乡村全面振兴。中联重科董秘陶兆波对《证券 日报》记者表示："公司打造了覆盖耕、种、收、烘全环节的农机矩阵，依托北斗导航自动驾驶、精准 施肥灌溉等技术，大幅提升农业作业效率、降低农户劳动强度。未来公司将持续推进智能农机与智慧农 业一体化发展。一方面聚力'机械强农'，打造高端、智能、绿色农机产品体系，另一方面推进'数农融 合'，数字化赋能打造智慧农业。持续以科技创新筑牢乡村振兴产业根基。" 作为国内数字水利与智慧农业领域的领军企业，大禹节水依托大禹慧图科技，着力打造"模型—平台— 场景"AI应用体系，在农业领域实现精准水肥调控、病虫害预警，节水增产效果显著。 孙文华表示，农业农村现代化、乡村振兴有赖于以上市公司为代表的一批市场主体积极整合资源、推进 成果转化。同时，企业应聚焦技术创新，研发智能农业装备、突破性品种等核心产品，同时通过"公司 +农户"、产业链融合等模式，提升产业效率，带动农民增收。 （文章来源：证券日报） 永清环保董事长刘正军对《证券日报》记者表示："公司长期深耕耕地治理赛道，依托多年技术积累与 项目经验，已构建起覆盖耕地修复治理与效果评估、高标准农 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes agricultural modernization, focusing on stabilizing grain production, promoting healthy development in animal husbandry, and enhancing agricultural technology innovation [3][4][5] - The grain production target has been raised to approximately 1.4 trillion jin, with initiatives to improve grain quality and variety [5][6] - The document acknowledges the success of previous measures in the livestock sector and introduces new strategies to boost dairy product consumption [8][9] - Agricultural technology innovation is highlighted, with a focus on the implementation of breeding actions and the integration of AI in agriculture [15][21] Summary by Sections Grain Sector - The document sets a grain production target of stabilizing at around 1.4 trillion jin and emphasizes quality improvement and variety enhancement [5][7] - It includes measures to protect farmers' interests, such as determining minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat [5][7] - The document also stresses the importance of developing a futures market for agricultural products [5][7] Livestock Sector - The document reinforces the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of previous measures in stabilizing the beef and dairy industries [8][9][11] - It promotes measures to enhance dairy product consumption and supports the development of forage crops [9][11] Agricultural Technology - The document continues to emphasize the implementation of breeding actions and the promotion of breakthrough varieties [15][16][17] - It encourages the development of high-end intelligent agricultural machinery and the integration of AI, drones, and IoT into agricultural practices [21][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture [27] - Swine: HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Co., TianKang Bio, and ShenNong Group [27] - Pet Industry: GuaiBao Pet [27] - Feed: HaiDa Group [27] - Poultry: LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., and ShengNong Development [27] - Animal Health: HuiSheng Bio [27] - Planting Chain: Hainan Rubber, QuanYin High-Tech, Guotou Fengle, and LongPing High-Tech [27]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 农林牧渔 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 看好牧业大周期反转，港股奶牛养殖标的充分受益 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头）、现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）、德康农牧（创新农户合作模式 的生猪养殖标的）、立华股份（低成本黄鸡与生猪养殖标的）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：1 月末生猪 12.16 元/公斤，月环比下跌 4%，7kg 仔猪价格约 365.71 元/ ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 2 月 4 日 江海证券研究发展部 消费行业研究组 分析师：张婧 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3.42 -2.93 -4.02 绝对收益 -2.76 -2.78 18.06 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 注：2026 年 2 月 3 日数据 -15% -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔行 业：能繁母猪加速去化，关注生猪养殖左 侧布局机会 – 2025.11.25 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔："反 内卷"叠加亏损减产，生猪养殖有望进入 产能去化周期 – 2025.09.25 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔行 业：中央一号文件发布，首提农业新质生 产力 – 2025.02.24 农林牧渔行业 聚焦农业现代化，建设农业强国 事件： ◆2026 年中央一号文件发布。2026 年 2 月 3 ...

一号文件发布，重点内容梳理！(0203) 畜牧业：强化生猪产能综合调控，巩固肉牛、奶牛产业纾困成果，促进供求平衡、健康发展。 首次提出多措并举促进乳制品消费。 种植业：稳定发展粮油生产，巩固提升大豆产能，拓展油菜、花生、油茶等生产空间，扩大油料多元化供给。 推动棉花、糖料、天然橡胶等产业平稳发展。 种业：深入实施种业振兴行动，加快选育和 一号文件发布，重点内容梳理！(0203) 畜牧业：强化生猪产能综合调控，巩固肉牛、奶牛产业纾困成果，促进供求平衡、健康发展。 首次提出多措并举促进乳制品消费。 种植业：稳定发展粮油生产，巩固提升大豆产能，拓展油菜、花生、油茶等生产空间，扩大油料多元化供给。 推动棉花、糖料、天然橡胶等产业平稳发展。 种业：深入实施种业振兴行动，加快选育和推广突破性品种，推进生物育种产业化。 （与25年提法基本一致） 农业科技：因地制宜发展农业新质生产力，促进人工智能与农业发展相结合，拓展无人机、物联网、机器人等应 用场景，加快农业生物制造关键技术创新。 农产品贸易：促进农产品贸易和生产相协调。 推进农产品进口多元化。 培育具有国际竞争力的农业企业。 支持扩大优势特色农产品出口。 建议关注养殖产 ...