SDIC Power(600886) 信达证券·2024-10-31 07:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power (600886.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Guotou Electric Power has shown steady revenue growth, with a 4.34% year-on-year increase in revenue to 44.395 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, and an 8.69% increase in net profit to 6.578 billion yuan [1] - The report emphasizes the significant growth in hydropower generation, particularly in the Yalong River basin, which has seen a 15.55% increase in hydropower generation to 79.89 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][2] - The report projects continued improvement in water inflow for hydropower in 2024, which is expected to drive high growth in hydropower generation [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Guotou Electric Power achieved revenue of 17.294 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.87%, and a net profit of 2.834 billion yuan, up 4.38% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 21.361 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.67% increase year-on-year [1] Hydropower Generation - The Yalong River hydropower generation saw a significant increase, with Q3 2024 generation reaching 33.543 billion kWh, a 24.63% year-on-year increase [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.292 yuan/kWh, a slight decrease of 2.19% year-on-year [1] Thermal Power Generation - The company experienced a slight decline in thermal power generation, with a total of 41.562 billion kWh generated in the first three quarters of 2024, down 0.64% year-on-year [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for thermal power was 0.463 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 2.11% year-on-year [1] New Energy Development - Guotou Electric Power added 995,700 kW of new energy capacity in the first three quarters of 2024, with total new energy generation reaching 8.458 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [1][2] - The report notes that the average on-grid electricity price for new energy has decreased, with wind power at 0.469 yuan/kWh and solar power at 0.516 yuan/kWh, reflecting declines of 2.7% and 27.73% year-on-year, respectively [2] Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the company's net profit will reach 8.39 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 25.1%, and will continue to grow in subsequent years [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the release of generation capacity from the Liangyang power stations and the rapid growth of new energy installations [3]