HUALU-HENGSHENG(600426) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 08:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, but due to a decline in the price of some products, the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to 1.83, 2.38, and 2.67 CNY respectively [2]. - The target price remains at 26.84 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 11.29 for 2025 [2]. - The company reported Q3 revenue of 25.18 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit of 3.05 billion CNY, up 4.16% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 8.205 billion CNY, which is a 17.43% increase year-on-year but a 8.81% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 17.56%, down 6.77 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 10.88%, down 6.54 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 35.953 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.876 billion CNY [3]. Product Performance - Fertilizer sales in Q3 reached 1.03 million tons, a 35.27% increase year-on-year, while the price per ton was 1,551 CNY, up 6.78% year-on-year [2]. - Organic amines saw sales of 152,600 tons, a 14.05% increase year-on-year, but the price per ton decreased by 18.88% year-on-year to 3,997 CNY [2]. - Acetic acid sales surged by 149% year-on-year to 370,000 tons, with a price drop of 13.91% year-on-year to 2,721 CNY per ton [2]. - The new materials segment sold 665,000 tons, a 4.25% increase year-on-year, with a price decrease of 11.71% year-on-year to 6,012 CNY per ton [2]. Future Outlook - The company’s Jingzhou base has significantly contributed to revenue, with the first phase generating 3.765 billion CNY in revenue and 542 million CNY in net profit [2]. - The second phase of the Jingzhou project is under construction and is expected to be operational by the end of 2024, which includes integrated projects and material optimization [2]. - The company anticipates improvements in profitability as macroeconomic stimulus policies are implemented, and prices for certain products may gradually recover [2].