海澜之家：主品牌线下待修复，斯搏兹业务快速增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted profit forecast for 2024-2026 [6][4]. Core Views - The main brand is experiencing a recovery phase in offline sales, while the Sboz business is growing rapidly. The overall revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is projected to remain stable year-on-year, with short-term profit pressures but long-term growth potential [4][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue is 15.26 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, and net profit is 1.91 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year. The gross margin is 44.6%, with a net margin of 12.9% [1][4]. - In Q3 2024, revenue is 3.89 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, and net profit is 270 million yuan, down 65% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42.8% [1][4]. Brand Performance Summary - The main brand's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is 11.3 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.3%. The group purchase and customization series saw a revenue decline of 14% to 1.46 billion yuan [2][4]. - Other brands, including Sboz, reported a revenue increase of 20% to 1.76 billion yuan, significantly boosted by the consolidation of Sboz's financials [2][4]. Channel Performance Summary - Offline sales decreased by 12% to 11.32 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, while online sales increased by 45% to 3.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - Direct sales outperformed franchise sales, with direct sales revenue up 4% to 3.33 billion yuan, while franchise sales fell 4% to 9.73 billion yuan [3][4]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - Inventory turnover days increased by 71.4 days to 346.1 days, with ending inventory up 53.5% to 12.33 billion yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of Sboz [4][4]. - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 30 million yuan, indicating potential for improvement in cash flow management [4][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in offline sales for the main brand, with contributions from e-commerce growth, overseas business, and the rapid expansion of Sboz. Overall, revenue for 2024 is expected to be flat year-on-year, with profits under short-term pressure but potential for steady growth in the medium to long term [4][4].