周大生（002867）：金价快涨拖累业绩，拓店稳步推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 14.80 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.612 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 40.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 253 million, down 28.7% year-on-year and 2.6% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue totaled RMB 10.809 billion, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 855 million, down 21.9% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is primarily due to high gold prices suppressing end-consumer demand and franchisee restocking needs. However, the net profit decline was smaller than revenue due to improved gross margin from the rapid rise in gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin direct sales channels [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - Franchise revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 1.73 billion, down 51.6% year-on-year, accounting for 66.2% of total revenue, a decrease of 14.6 percentage points year-on-year. Offline self-operated revenue was RMB 390 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, accounting for 14.9% of total revenue, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year. E-commerce revenue benefited from increased sales of small items, reaching RMB 462 million, up 14.1% year-on-year, accounting for 17.7% of total revenue, an increase of 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 27.5%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the rapid rise in gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin direct sales channels. The selling expense ratio increased by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year to 11.3%, attributed to higher salaries, rental costs, and advertising expenses. The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 9.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 has been revised down to RMB 1.09 billion, RMB 1.25 billion, and RMB 1.38 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.1%, +14.5%, and +10.5%, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 1.00, RMB 1.14, and RMB 1.26. The target price is set at RMB 14.80, based on a PE ratio of 13 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strategy to maintain store openings and increase market share despite intensified competition [5][6].