GUANGHUI ENERGY(600256) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 08:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at CNY 26.39 billion, down 46.76% year-on-year, and net profit at CNY 2.00 billion, down 58.72% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in coal resource tax in Xinjiang is identified as a factor negatively impacting the company's profitability in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company has seen a notable increase in coal production and sales, with total coal production reaching 24.04 million tons, up 23.8% year-on-year, and coal sales at 28.61 million tons, up 25.0% year-on-year [1]. - Strategic investment in the eastern mining area is expected to accelerate development, with a cash consideration of CNY 2.05 billion for a 40% stake in a subsidiary [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 40.40 billion, a decrease of 34.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 3.29 billion, down 36.4% year-on-year [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at CNY 0.50, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.8 [2]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is projected to be 11.8% for 2024E, increasing to 21.8% by 2026E [2]. Stock Information - The company operates in the refining and trading industry, with a market capitalization of CNY 52.07 billion and a closing price of CNY 7.93 as of October 30, 2024 [3]. - The stock has a total share count of 6,565.76 million, with 100% free float [3]. Price Performance - The stock has shown a fluctuating price trend, with a notable decline of approximately 20% from October 2023 to October 2024 [4]. Analyst Insights - The report highlights the potential for earnings recovery in the coming years, with projected net profits of CNY 33 billion, CNY 52 billion, and CNY 64 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the release of high-quality coal production capacity and strategic partnerships [1].