SHUANGHUAN COMPANY(002472) 国盛证券·2024-10-31 08:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with steady operations and improved profitability [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 6,743 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.83%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 738 million yuan, up 25.21% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2,420 million yuan, up 10.7% year-on-year and 7.7% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 265 million yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year and 5.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to benefit from steady growth in demand for passenger and commercial vehicles in Q4 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin in Q3 2024 was 24.0%, up 2.26 percentage points year-on-year and 1.13 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by revenue growth and economies of scale [2] - The total expense ratio in Q3 2024 was 10.2%, with slight increases in management and R&D expense ratios due to new business expansion [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,062 million yuan in 2024, 1,319 million yuan in 2025, and 1,613 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23x, 18x, and 15x [2] Business Development - The company's new energy transmission gear capacity reached 5 million units by the end of 2023, with ongoing projects in Jiaxing and export markets [2] - The acquisition of Sanduo Le in 2022 expanded the company's civil gear business, generating 380 million yuan in revenue in 2023 and achieving profitability in Q1 2024 [2] - The civil gear business covers smart office, smart automotive, smart home, and future living sectors, expected to contribute incremental performance in the future [2] Industry Trends - Domestic passenger vehicle sales in Q3 2024 increased by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with the company's performance trends [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 9,972 million yuan in 2024 to 14,874 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1,062 million yuan in 2024 to 1,613 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.2% [3] - EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.26 yuan in 2024 to 1.91 yuan in 2026 [3]