lu'an EED(601699) 信达证券·2024-10-31 08:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lu'an Huaneng (601699.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in volume and price has impacted short-term performance, but there is an expectation of improved production in the coming quarters, which may stabilize performance [1][3] - The company has a strong cash position and high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its investment value [2] - Lu'an Huaneng is positioned as a leader in the domestic blowing coal industry, with high-quality coal assets and a robust cash coverage of interest-bearing debt, indicating both stable operations and high growth potential [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 26.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.798 billion yuan, down 61.51% year-on-year [1] - The company's coal production for the first three quarters was 42.47 million tons, a decrease of 4.82% year-on-year, while the third quarter saw a production increase of 2.56% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of coal decreased to 662 yuan per ton, down 12.32% from the previous year, while the cost per ton increased to 376 yuan, up 9.55% year-on-year [1] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for Lu'an Huaneng for 2024-2026 is 3.664 billion, 4.646 billion, and 5.906 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.22, 1.55, and 1.97 yuan per share [3][4] - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends amounting to 4.753 billion yuan for 2023, representing 60% of net profit [2]