寒武纪：存货大增，剑指Q4

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for Cambricon (688256 SH) [3][5] Core Views - Cambricon's inventory surged significantly in 24Q3, reaching 1 02 billion, a substantial increase from 130 million in 24Q1 and 240 million in 24Q2 [1] - 24Q3 revenue reached 120 million, a yoy increase of 285% and qoq increase of 208%, marking a historical high for the company [1] - The company's gross margin in 24Q3 was 51 2%, a qoq decrease of 14 9 percentage points, but future margin trends are expected to be more indicative of performance [1] - Cambricon is actively adapting to the domestic AI model ecosystem, with significant updates to its software framework and hardware support, indicating potential for future growth [2] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow rapidly, with Cambricon positioned as a leading player benefiting from the AI computing power trend [3] Financial Performance - 24Q3 net cash flow from operating activities was -1 18 billion, primarily due to increased procurement expenditures [1] - 24Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was -190 million, a yoy increase of 26% and qoq increase of 36% [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upward to 1 527 billion, 2 891 billion, and 4 975 billion, respectively [3] - The company's P/S ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 122x, 64x, and 37x, reflecting strong growth expectations [3] Industry and Market Context - 2024 is seen as a pivotal year for the rise of domestic AI models, with increasing demand for inference computing power [2] - Cambricon's efforts in software ecosystem development, including the release of new frameworks and hardware support, are expected to enhance its competitive position [2] - The company's inventory and prepayment levels suggest strong supply readiness, with potential for significant performance in 24Q4 [1][3] Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected at 115%, 89%, and 72%, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve significantly, with growth rates of 49%, 128%, and 848% for 2024-2026 [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 69% over the forecast period [3]