亚钾国际：高效生产管控成本，明年有望高增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in the coming year due to efficient production management and cost control [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.483 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 518 million yuan, down 47.89% year-on-year [1]. - The production efficiency has improved, with a production of approximately 478,600 tons of potassium fertilizer in the third quarter, reflecting a sequential increase of 6,300 tons [2]. - The company is advancing its second 1 million ton production line and expects the third line to be operational in the first half of next year, which will significantly boost production capacity [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 785 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.71%, and a net profit of 248 million yuan, down 10.71% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume in Q3 was 380,400 tons, reflecting a sequential decline of 180,000 tons due to adjustments in sales strategy and delivery timing [1][2]. Operational Analysis - The company maintained high-load production on existing lines, leading to improved production efficiency [2]. - The average selling price of potassium fertilizer increased significantly in Q3 due to domestic price rises and slight fluctuations in overseas prices [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024 has been revised down by 66%, with projected revenues of 3.762 billion yuan, 6.252 billion yuan, and 7.922 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 780 million yuan, 1.175 billion yuan, and 1.461 billion yuan for the same years [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 21, 14, and 11 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3].