Zoomlion(000157) 民生证券·2024-10-31 09:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co Ltd (000157 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Zoomlion's operating quality has steadily improved, with globalization and diversification strategies reducing cyclical impacts [1] - Domestic construction machinery market shows signs of bottoming out, with excavators leading the recovery [1] - The company's overseas revenue reached 12 05 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 49 1% of total revenue, up 11 1 percentage points YoY [1] - Emerging business segments (earthmoving, aerial work platforms, agricultural machinery, mining) contributed 9 815 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing 40% of total revenue [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 34 385 billion yuan, down 3 18% YoY, while net profit attributable to parent company increased 9 95% YoY to 3 139 billion yuan [1] - Gross profit margin improved to 28 37%, up 0 61 percentage points YoY [1] - Net profit margin increased to 10 16%, up 1 54 percentage points YoY [1] - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1 208 billion yuan, up 5 78% YoY [1] Market Outlook - Domestic construction machinery demand is stabilizing, supported by trillion-yuan special bond projects and equipment renewal policies [1] - Excavator domestic sales reached 74 000 units in Jan-Sep 2024, up 8 6% YoY, while crane sales declined 35 9% [1] - The industry is expected to gradually recover as equipment renewal cycles approach and infrastructure projects accelerate [1] Strategic Development - The company is implementing a comprehensive globalization strategy covering R&D, manufacturing, supply chain, products, services, and talent [1] - Emerging business segments are showing strong growth, with revenue increasing 32 73% YoY in H1 2024 [1] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through end-to-end digitalization [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 net profit is projected to be 3 86 billion, 5 07 billion, and 6 37 billion yuan respectively [1] - 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted at 0 40, 0 45, and 0 58 yuan [4] - 2024-2026 PE ratios are estimated at 16, 12, and 9 times [1][4] Key Financial Indicators - 2024-2026 revenue growth is projected at 13 08%, 2 06%, and 15 14% [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 28% [4] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 6 22% in 2023 to 9 93% in 2026 [4] - Debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain around 54% [4]