Milkground(600882) 平安证券·2024-10-31 09:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on the development of its cheese business, optimizing its structure to enhance growth potential [4] - The cheese segment generated revenue of 28.12 billion yuan, accounting for 81.37% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2024 [4] - The report anticipates that the integration of Mengniu's cheese business will lead to synergies with the company's main operations in the future [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.85 billion yuan, a significant increase of 571.67% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.17 billion yuan, down 6.74% year-on-year, but the net profit turned positive at 0.14 billion yuan [3] - The financial forecast for 2024-2026 projects net profits of 1.10 billion yuan, 2.00 billion yuan, and 2.36 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.21, 0.39, and 0.46 yuan [4][6] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from distribution channels accounted for 79.15% of total revenue, while direct sales and trade channels contributed 10.37% and 10.48% respectively [4] - Geographically, the North region generated 40.03% of revenue, the Central region 39.03%, and the South region 20.91% [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's current valuation is at a historically low level, with projected P/E ratios of 75.4, 41.3, and 35.1 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][11] - The report indicates a strong improvement in the company's fundamentals, supporting the "Recommended" rating [4]