Winner Medical(300888) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 09:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders has decreased by 74.3% to 550 million yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items has decreased by 24.0% to 470 million yuan. Excluding the high base effect from the urban renewal project, the net profit attributable to shareholders has decreased by 29.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the revenue growth has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024 downwards while raising the forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 805 million, 1.062 billion, and 1.208 billion yuan for 2024-2026 respectively [1] - The medical consumables segment has shown a revenue of 2.66 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, down 11.5% year-on-year, but Q3 revenue has increased by 13.1% to 940 million yuan. The core product categories have seen significant growth, with high-end dressings and health personal care products increasing by 33.5% and 36.2% respectively [1] - The health consumer goods segment has achieved a revenue of 3.36 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, up 13.7% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue growth accelerating to 20.6%. Key products such as wet and dry cotton towels, sanitary napkins, and adult clothing have seen substantial increases in sales [1] Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the gross margin is 48.1%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material prices. The net profit margin is 7.8%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company has announced a restricted stock incentive plan, proposing to grant up to 7.476 million shares to no more than 308 individuals, with performance assessment requirements for the compound growth rates of the company's three major business segments from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The financial forecast indicates a revenue of 8.78 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 27.9%, followed by a recovery in 2025 and 2026 with expected growth rates of 25.2% and 13.3% respectively [3]