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古井贡酒2024年三季报点评:展现韧性,优势凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 219.26 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [3][5][12]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations with revenue of 5.263 billion CNY and net profit of 1.174 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.36% and 13.60% respectively [2][13]. - The report highlights the company's strong channel control and profitability, with a net profit margin of 22.3% in Q3 2024, indicating stable profitability despite a slight decline in gross margin [3][12][13]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its pricing strategy and cost control, with a forecasted EPS of 10.66 CNY, 12.06 CNY, and 13.41 CNY for 2024-2026 [3][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 23.587 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.5% compared to 2023 [4]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 5.637 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [4]. - The company’s net asset return rate is forecasted to be 23.3% for 2024, maintaining a strong financial position [4][12].