Seazen(SH:601155) Changjiang Securities·2024-10-31 09:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - After the new policies, the market's risk appetite is expected to gradually recover, and the growth of self-owned business opens up valuation space [3][5]. - The company achieved revenue of 51.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 27.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.45 billion yuan, down 41.3% [3][4]. - The company’s high-profit commercial operation revenue ratio has increased, boosting the gross profit margin, while the development business continues to drag down performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company completed a construction area of 8.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%, with a settlement gross profit margin down by 1.3 percentage points to 10.9% [3][4]. - Despite a significant reduction in asset impairment, investment income declined, and the increase in expense ratios, particularly financial expenses, further suppressed performance [3][4]. - The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 20.2%, with gross profit down by 20.0% year-on-year [3][4]. Sales Performance - Sales performance remains under pressure, with sales amounting to 31.8 billion yuan, down 47.1%, and sales area of 4.32 million square meters, down 42.7% [4]. - The average sales price decreased by 7.7% to 7,400 yuan per square meter [4]. - The company has a total of 33.49 million square meters of saleable land reserves, which provides some assurance for future sales [4]. Self-Owned Business Growth - The self-owned business has shown steady growth, with a total rentable area of 9.27 million square meters, an increase of 3.8% [5]. - The total revenue from commercial operations reached 9.48 billion yuan, up 16.6%, completing 75.9% of the annual target [5]. - The growth of self-owned business is crucial for cash flow and profitability, providing important support for the company's valuation recovery [5]. Future Outlook - The company aims to complete a construction target of 13.92 million square meters in 2024, a decrease of 31.0% compared to 2023 [3][5]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected to be 710 million, 750 million, and 870 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 45.3, 43.0, and 36.8 times [5].