AVIC XAC(000768) 民生证券·2024-10-31 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met market expectations, with revenue of 28.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 940 million yuan, up 17.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the large aircraft sector, benefiting from the growth of special aircraft and domestic large aircraft industries, which are expected to drive future performance [2][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in other income due to tax incentives for advanced manufacturing enterprises, which grew by 666% year-on-year to 290 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 290 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved by 2.35 percentage points to 10.9%, while the net margin increased by 0.68 percentage points to 3.4% [2]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters accounted for 64% of the annual operational target of 45.1 billion yuan [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.12 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.82 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 72x, 56x, and 44x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. Industry Developments - The report notes the establishment of over 26 billion yuan in civil aviation projects in the Shanghai Lingang New Area, indicating robust growth in the large aircraft business [2]. - The domestic aviation industry is entering a new phase of industrialization and scaling, with major airlines beginning regular operations of the C919 aircraft [2].