Aier(300015) 国信证券·2024-10-31 10:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2024 due to macroeconomic factors, with revenue of 5.756 billion yuan, down 0.68% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.402 billion yuan, down 4.56% year-on-year. However, the company achieved a cumulative revenue of 16.302 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.58% [1][4]. - The company is expanding its medical service network through orderly hospital acquisitions, having completed the acquisition of 87 hospitals this year, enhancing its operational management capabilities [1][10]. - The company maintains stable expense ratios, with a slight decline in gross margin to 51.02%, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share of high-margin refractive and optical services [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.756 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.402 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 0.68% and 4.56%, respectively. The first three quarters of 2024 saw cumulative revenue of 16.302 billion yuan, up 1.58% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.452 billion yuan, up 8.50% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 20.649 billion, 23.821 billion, and 27.241 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 3.534 billion, 4.262 billion, and 5.102 billion yuan [11][12]. Operational Expansion - The company completed the acquisition of 35 hospitals by the end of July 2024, with a total investment of 899 million yuan. This brings the total number of hospitals acquired this year to 87, indicating a robust expansion of its medical service network [1][10]. - The acquisition of the European chain eye hospital Clínica Baviera has resulted in an annualized net profit compound growth rate exceeding 25% [1][10]. Cost and Profitability Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 51.02% in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 0.91 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 21.17%, benefiting from increased investment income [1][5]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, financial, and R&D remained stable, with slight increases in sales and management expenses [1][5].