HTSC(601688) 国信证券·2024-10-31 10:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.424 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.521 billion yuan, up 30.63% year-on-year. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses decreased by 35.29% to 6.319 billion yuan [1][3] - The increase in performance is attributed to market recovery driven by policy support and a decrease in interest expenses on interest-bearing liabilities, leading to significant growth in investment income and interest income [1][3] - The company continues to deepen its "dual-driven" strategy of wealth management and institutional services, optimizing its wealth management business structure to enhance customer stickiness [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported investment business income (including fair value changes) of 12.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.85%. Net interest income was 1.301 billion yuan, up 52.05% year-on-year [1][3] - Brokerage business revenue was 3.966 billion yuan, down 14.27% year-on-year due to a decrease in fee rates. The asset management business net income was 3.033 billion yuan, down 3.67% year-on-year [1][3] - The company’s total monetary funds reached 215.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.28%, primarily due to an increase in client funds [1][3] Investment Banking Performance - The company’s investment banking revenue was 1.357 billion yuan, down 40.76% year-on-year, with equity underwriting amounting to 20.663 billion yuan, a decrease of 71% year-on-year. The bond underwriting amount was 909.2 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year [1][3] - The company ranks third in the industry for equity underwriting and bond underwriting, with a current IPO reserve of 8 projects, indicating potential for future mergers and acquisitions [1][3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been raised by 6.92%, 6.07%, and 5.65% respectively. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for these years is 14.417 billion yuan, 15.415 billion yuan, and 16.534 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 13.07%, 6.92%, and 7.26% respectively [1][3][8] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 11.05, 10.36, and 9.66 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, while the price-to-book (PB) ratios are projected to be 0.84, 0.79, and 0.75 [1][3][8]