Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-31 10:19Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" with a target price of 43.02 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of 37.36 CNY [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's net interest margin has stabilized, and profitability is showing signs of recovery, while provisions remain at a high level [1][5]. - The bank's revenue has shown a continuous upward recovery, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching approximately 252.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91% [2][9]. - The asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a provision coverage ratio of 432.15% [4][21]. Financial Performance Summary - As of Q3 2024, the bank's total revenue was approximately 252.7 billion CNY, with net interest income at 157.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.07% [2][9]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 113.2 billion CNY, down 0.62% year-on-year [2][9]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.99%, slightly below the mid-2024 target of 2.00% but showing a significant slowdown in the downward trend compared to previous quarters [3][12]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q3 2024, the bank's interest-earning assets totaled 112,931 billion CNY, an increase of 776 billion CNY from H1 2024 [4][16]. - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities amounted to 99,455 billion CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 542 billion CNY [4][16]. - The structure of liabilities shows a stable increase in deposits, with a slight decrease in existing bonds and interbank liabilities [4][20]. Asset Quality and Provisions - The non-performing loan balance stood at 636 billion CNY, maintaining a ratio of 0.94% [21]. - The overdue loan ratio improved to 1.36%, with a provision coverage ratio of 432.2% for non-performing loans [4][21]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit growth from 2024 to 2026 is 2.25%, 3.79%, and 3.19%, respectively [5][25]. - The report utilizes a dividend discount model to estimate a target price of 43.02 CNY, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 1.04x for 2024 [5][25].