LZLJ(SZ:000568) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-31 10:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 135.51 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company reported a cumulative revenue of 243.04 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 115.93 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.76% and 9.72% respectively [2]. - The company adheres to a long-term development strategy during the industry contraction period, with projected revenues of 329 billion CNY, 349 billion CNY, and 369 billion CNY for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 6.0%, and 5.8% [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 73.99 billion CNY, with a net profit of 35.66 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.67% and 2.58% respectively [2]. - The real revenue for Q3 2024, calculated as "quarterly revenue + Δ contract liabilities," was 242.85 billion CNY, indicating an 8.72% year-on-year growth, which is faster than the revenue growth rate [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 88.43%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin for the same period was 47.70% [4]. - The company expects net profits of 143 billion CNY, 152 billion CNY, and 161 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 8.2%, 5.8%, and 5.8% respectively [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to implement a "dual-brand, three product lines, and major products" strategy, enhancing efficiency through digital transformation across production, marketing, and management [3]. - The company has effectively managed inventory and improved channel recovery, with a focus on expanding terminal network points and utilizing a digital marketing system to enhance consumer interaction and data management [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 32,906 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 8.8% [7]. - The earnings per share are expected to increase from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 9.74 CNY in 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio decreasing from 15 to 14 [7][8].