福能股份：主业经营表现稳健，业绩受限参股收益

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fueneng Power (600483 SH) [3] Core Views - Fueneng Power's main business operations remain stable but performance is constrained by investment income [1][3] - Q3 2024 revenue decreased 4 13% YoY to 3 82 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to parent company decreased 16 60% YoY to 585 million yuan - Thermal power and gas power businesses showed growth while coal power declined [3] - Thermal power generation increased 0 08% YoY to 2 279 billion kWh - Gas power generation increased 9 66% YoY to 1 682 billion kWh - Coal power generation decreased 20 19% YoY to 1 473 billion kWh - Wind power performance was pressured by weak wind conditions [4] - Total wind power generation decreased 1 34% YoY to 1 017 billion kWh - Offshore wind power generation decreased 1 41% YoY to 598 million kWh - Onshore wind power generation decreased 1 24% YoY to 419 million kWh Financial Performance - Gross profit increased 2 37% YoY to 745 million yuan in Q3 2024 [4] - Investment income decreased 26 05% YoY to 285 million yuan due to accounting timing differences [4] - Key financial projections for 2024-2026 [10] - EPS estimated at 1 09 1 18 and 1 33 yuan respectively - PE ratios projected at 8 82x 8 12x and 7 23x respectively - Net profit margin expected to increase from 17 9% in 2023 to 21 9% in 2026 Business Segments - Thermal power business remained stable with coal price fluctuations partially offset by long-term contracts [3] - Q5500 coal price at Qinhuangdao Port decreased 18 10 yuan/ton YoY - Estimated coal price increase of 13 58 yuan/ton when considering inventory - Gas power business benefited from earlier implementation of replacement electricity policy [3] - Replacement electricity policy implemented from April 2024 compared to September 2023 - Coal power business impact was limited due to low profit contribution (3 82% of total profit in H1 2024) [3] Valuation and Outlook - The company's long-term growth potential remains promising with potential restart of Fujian offshore wind power approvals [6] - Key valuation metrics [10] - Current price to book ratio: 1 11x - Projected price to book ratio for 2026: 0 91x - EV/EBITDA for 2026: 6 50x - ROE expected to increase from 12 0% in 2023 to 12 6% in 2026