石头科技2024Q3点评：蓄力长期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.35 billion yuan, up 43.4% year-on-year [1] - The company expects domestic sales in Q3 to grow approximately 30% year-on-year, with a slight decline in price and a double-digit increase in volume [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its direct sales channels and expects to improve its control over the consumer end [1] Revenue Analysis - Q1-Q3 revenue reached 7.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.47 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 53.95%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.57%, down 13.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Profit Analysis - The company is experiencing fluctuations in profit margins due to various factors, including increased sales expenses and tariffs in the U.S. [1] - The report indicates that the company is in a transformative phase, adjusting pricing and increasing investment in direct sales to drive future revenue growth [1] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 10.78 billion yuan in 2024, 12.91 billion yuan in 2025, and 14.95 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 19.8%, and 15.8% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.10 billion yuan in 2024, 2.37 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.74 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 2.3%, 13.1%, and 15.4% [4]