Seazen(SH:601155) Ping An Securities·2024-10-31 11:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 51.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.45 billion yuan, down 41.3% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin improved by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 20.2%, despite the decline in revenue and net profit [3]. - The company’s contract sales amounted to 31.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.1% year-on-year, with a sales area of 4.315 million square meters, down 42.7% [3]. - The rental income for the first three quarters reached 8.85 billion yuan, with total commercial operation revenue of 9.48 billion yuan, both showing a growth of 16.6% year-on-year [3]. - The report projects the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.33 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.35 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 43.9, 43.1, and 42.1 [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 108.449 billion yuan, a decline of 9.0% from the previous year [5]. - Net profit is expected to recover slightly to 746 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [5]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 18.9% in 2024, slightly down from 19.1% in 2023 [5]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for 2024 is estimated at 6.123 billion yuan, a decrease from 10.063 billion yuan in 2023 [7]. - The net cash increase is projected to be negative at -8.126 billion yuan for 2024 [7]. Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 44.5 in 2023 to 43.9 in 2024, indicating a slight improvement in valuation [8]. - The P/B ratio remains stable at 0.5 for the forecasted years [8].