CMSK(SZ:001979) Ping An Securities·2024-10-31 11:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 78.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.6 billion yuan, a decline of 31% year-on-year [3][4] - The company's sales volume remains among the top in the industry, with a sales area of 6.424 million square meters, down 30% year-on-year, and a sales amount of 145.17 billion yuan, down 35.9% year-on-year [4] - The company has increased its investment intensity, with new land reserves of 1.4 million square meters and a total land price of 28.9 billion yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 183,003; 2023A: 175,008; 2024E: 183,758; 2025E: 189,271; 2026E: 193,056 [6] - Net Profit (in million yuan): 2022A: 4,264; 2023A: 6,319; 2024E: 6,510; 2025E: 6,639; 2026E: 6,942 [6] - Gross Margin (%): 2022A: 19.3; 2023A: 15.9; 2024E: 12.0; 2025E: 11.9; 2026E: 12.2 [6] - Net Margin (%): 2022A: 2.3; 2023A: 3.6; 2024E: 3.5; 2025E: 3.5; 2026E: 3.6 [6] - Return on Equity (ROE) (%): 2022A: 4.2; 2023A: 5.3; 2024E: 5.3; 2025E: 5.2; 2026E: 5.3 [6] Cash Flow Summary - Operating cash flow (in million yuan): 2023A: 31,043; 2024E: -19,464; 2025E: 50,293; 2026E: 44,821 [8] - Net cash increase (in million yuan): 2023A: 1,409; 2024E: -69,914; 2025E: 551; 2026E: 379 [8]