Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 11:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates significant cost advantages, high earnings realization, and substantial dividends, highlighting its long-term investment value [1] - The company reported a revenue of 96.775 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.481 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 668.90% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards due to expected pressure on pig prices, with estimates of 18.831 billion, 15.828 billion, and 13.799 billion yuan respectively [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 39.909 billion yuan, up 28.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.652 billion yuan, up 930.20% year-on-year [1][2] - The total number of pigs sold in Q1-Q3 2024 was 50.144 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.67% [2] - The average cost of pig production in Q3 2024 decreased to approximately 13.75 yuan per kilogram, with expectations to drop below 13 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2024 [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.31 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 4.505 billion yuan, which accounts for 40.06% of the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company has revised its dividend policy to increase the annual cash dividend payout ratio from at least 20% to 40% of the distributable profits for the next three years [3] Market Position - The company maintains a strong financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.38% and cash reserves of 19.325 billion yuan as of September 2024 [3] - The current stock price is 43.64 yuan, with a market capitalization of 238.508 billion yuan [5]